Market Resolution
Market resolution is the process of determining the winning outcome of a prediction-market contract at expiry using a defined resolution source.
What it means in practice
Market resolution is the step in which a prediction market determines which outcome actually occurred once a contract reaches expiry, fixing the result that will be used to pay out positions. Resolution answers a single factual question, such as whether a named event happened by a stated date, and converts the real-world result into the value of each outcome share. Resolution precedes settlement: resolution decides who won, settlement moves the money. The resolution process is what turns an open contract into a closed, payable position.
The credibility of resolution rests on the resolution source. CFTC-registered venues resolve contracts from a named authoritative source defined in the contract terms, while many on-chain venues route the question through a prediction market oracle that proposes a result, allows a dispute window, and falls back to a token-holder vote if challenged. A clear, pre-published source matters because participants need to know, before they trade an event contract, exactly how the winning outcome will be decided. Ambiguous wording or an undefined source is the most common cause of resolution disputes.
Disputes arise when the resolution source is silent, contradictory, or open to interpretation, for example when an event is postponed, partially occurs, or the underlying data provider revises a figure after the fact. A disputed resolution delays payout, ties up participant funds, and can produce a contested result that some users regard as unfair. For operators, this is both a reputational and a compliance exposure, because a resolution seen as arbitrary undermines trust in every market on the platform.
For operators and affiliates in the prediction-market vertical, resolution quality is a marketing and retention factor, not just an operational detail. Affiliates who send traffic to a platform with a transparent, well-documented resolution process protect their referred users and their own reputation, while a single high-profile bad resolution can drive churn and chargebacks. Operators that publish resolution rules clearly and resolve consistently across gambling jurisdictions build the trust that sustains long-term affiliate value.
How Market Resolution works across industries
See how market resolution is applied in the verticals Track360 supports, from qualification logic and payout structure to the operational context behind each model.
How Track360 handles this
Track360 supports operators in the prediction-markets vertical with affiliate tracking, commission models, and reporting, so affiliate managers can see referred-trader activity and commission impact around contract resolution events without exposing them to the resolution decision itself.
Frequently Asked Questions
Common questions about market resolution, how it works in affiliate programs, and where it shows up across Track360's supported verticals.
Market resolution is the process of determining which outcome of a contract actually occurred at expiry, using a resolution source defined in the contract terms. Resolution fixes the winning outcome so the market can settle and pay positions. It comes before settlement, which is the actual movement of funds to winning holders.
Related Terms
Prediction Market Oracle
Prediction market oracle refers to the trusted data source or mechanism that reports the real-world outcome used to resolve and settle a market.
Prediction Market Settlement
Prediction market settlement is the final step where winning outcome shares pay their fixed value, losing shares expire worthless, and funds become payable.
Event Contract
An event contract is a tradeable instrument that settles at a fixed value if a defined real-world event occurs and zero otherwise.
Prediction Market
A market in which participants trade contracts whose payouts depend on the outcomes of future events such as elections, sports results, or economic indicators, structured as binary-outcome contracts and regulated as derivatives in some jurisdictions and as gambling in others.
Outcome Shares
Outcome shares are the tradeable Yes and No units of a prediction market whose prices sum to about one and pay a fixed value if correct.
Gambling Jurisdiction
A gambling jurisdiction is a territory whose regulatory body licenses and oversees online gambling operators, defining legal, technical, and compliance standards that affect operators and their affiliate programs.
Settlement Period
The settlement period is the timeframe between when an affiliate commission is earned and when it becomes eligible for payout after verification and hold requirements.
Continue Learning
Free structured courses that cover this topic and more.
How to Migrate an Affiliate Program Without Breaking Attribution
A practical migration plan for operators moving from an existing affiliate or IB system. Map your stack, protect attribution, preserve payout logic, and move to a new setup without creating reporting chaos.
How to Structure Affiliate Commissions
CPA, RevShare, hybrid models, KPI-based deals, and multi-tier payout logic. How to pick the right structure for your program, negotiate without losing margin, and adjust as your affiliate base grows.
Related Articles
Further reading on market resolution and related affiliate program topics.
What Is Kalshi? Operator & Affiliate Explainer 2026
Kalshi is a CFTC-registered Designated Contract Market that lists regulated event contracts on a central order book. This explainer covers how the order-book model works, how contracts resolve, the regulatory significance of Kalshi v. CFTC, and what operators and affiliates can learn from a compliant prediction-market model.
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What Is Polymarket? Operator & Affiliate Explainer 2026
Polymarket is a large on-chain prediction market on Polygon that settles in USDC and resolves outcomes through the UMA optimistic oracle. This explainer covers its order-book structure, oracle-based resolution and dispute process, election-cycle liquidity, and what operators and affiliates learn about on-chain settlement and referral mechanics.
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How Do Prediction Markets Work? An Operator's Guide for 2026
Prediction markets trade event contracts that pay $1 if an outcome happens and $0 if it does not, so the price between 0 and 1 reads as the implied probability. This operator guide breaks down outcome shares, order books versus AMMs versus parimutuel pools, oracle resolution, settlement, and how fees and affiliate commissions attach.
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How to Launch a Sports Prediction Market: Operator Playbook 2026
Launching a sports prediction market in 2026 means choosing a regulatory path, building a central limit order book, wiring credible sports resolution sources, and bootstrapping liquidity before affiliates arrive. This operator playbook walks the 8 steps in order, maps the Kalshi versus DraftKings sports-contract battle, and shows where affiliate acquisition fits.
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Prediction Market Oracles & Resolution: An Operator Guide 2026
How a prediction market resolves and settles is the single biggest trust factor an operator controls. This 2026 guide compares resolution models - the CFTC authoritative-source approach versus the UMA optimistic oracle - walks the propose, dispute, and vote flow, and shows how settlement timing and ambiguity risk affect operator and affiliate reputation.
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Prediction Market Affiliate Tracking: S2S & Settlement Attribution
Prediction-market affiliate tracking is harder than standard affiliate tracking because revenue depends on event settlement, which can land weeks or months after the click. This guide covers S2S postbacks, long-dated attribution windows, settlement-based RevShare reconciliation, deep-linking, and the product fit for event-contract platforms.
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