Kalshi
Kalshi is a US CFTC-registered prediction-market exchange that offers regulated event contracts on outcomes such as economics, politics, and weather.
What it means in practice
Kalshi is a United States prediction-market exchange registered with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission as a designated contract market, which lets it list regulated event contracts to US users on outcomes such as economic indicators, elections, and weather. Because the venue operates under commodity-derivatives rules rather than state gaming law, it is widely cited as a reference point for how a compliant prediction market can run in a regulated US framework.
The exchange uses a central-limit-order-book model, so buyers and sellers post bids and offers and trades match at agreed prices between 0 and 1. Each contract has a defined resolution source documented in advance, and settlement pays holders of the correct side at expiry. Kalshi earns transaction fees on trading volume rather than acting as the counterparty that profits from losing bets, which separates its economics from a fixed-odds sportsbook.
Kalshi is central to the 2024 Kalshi v. CFTC ruling over political event contracts, and it has faced state-level pushback over contracts that resemble sports wagering. Operators study this history to understand how a gambling-jurisdiction analysis differs from a federal derivatives classification, and why the regulatory status of a given contract type can vary by state even when the exchange itself holds a federal registration.
For partner programs, Kalshi illustrates event-contract affiliate economics: referred traders generate fee-bearing volume over time rather than a single deposit, so compensation for a prediction-market affiliate tends to attach as CPA on a qualified first trade or revenue share on contract fees. Operators studying this model focus on per-trade attribution so that volume can be tied back to the introducing partner accurately.
How Kalshi works across industries
See how kalshi is applied in the verticals Track360 supports, from qualification logic and payout structure to the operational context behind each model.
How Track360 handles this
Track360 supports operators in the prediction-markets vertical with affiliate tracking, commission models, and reporting tailored to event-contract economics, so partner volume can be attributed and paid even when the venue runs on a regulated exchange model.
Frequently Asked Questions
Common questions about kalshi, how it works in affiliate programs, and where it shows up across Track360's supported verticals.
Kalshi is a US prediction-market exchange registered with the CFTC as a designated contract market. Users trade regulated event contracts on outcomes such as economics, politics, and weather, with prices between 0 and 1 that reflect implied probability.
Related Terms
Prediction Market
A market in which participants trade contracts whose payouts depend on the outcomes of future events such as elections, sports results, or economic indicators, structured as binary-outcome contracts and regulated as derivatives in some jurisdictions and as gambling in others.
Designated Contract Market (DCM)
A designated contract market (DCM) is a CFTC-licensed exchange authorized to list futures and event contracts to retail participants under federal law.
CFTC Event Contract
A CFTC event contract is an event contract listed on a CFTC-registered exchange and regulated as a derivative rather than as gambling, settling on an outcome.
Event Contract
An event contract is a tradeable instrument that settles at a fixed value if a defined real-world event occurs and zero otherwise.
Polymarket
Polymarket is a large on-chain prediction market on Polygon that settles trades in USDC and resolves outcomes through the UMA optimistic oracle.
Prediction Market Affiliate
A prediction market affiliate promotes event-outcome trading platforms and earns commissions on referred users who trade contracts on political, economic, or sports events.
Gambling Jurisdiction
A gambling jurisdiction is a territory whose regulatory body licenses and oversees online gambling operators, defining legal, technical, and compliance standards that affect operators and their affiliate programs.
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How to Structure Affiliate Commissions
CPA, RevShare, hybrid models, KPI-based deals, and multi-tier payout logic. How to pick the right structure for your program, negotiate without losing margin, and adjust as your affiliate base grows.
Related Articles
Further reading on kalshi and related affiliate program topics.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Operator & Affiliate Comparison 2026
Kalshi and Polymarket represent two opposing prediction-market models: one CFTC-registered exchange running on a central order book, the other an on-chain venue settling in USDC through an optimistic oracle. This operator and affiliate comparison breaks down regulation, market structure, liquidity, resolution, and partner economics across both.
Jun 10, 2026
What Is Kalshi? Operator & Affiliate Explainer 2026
Kalshi is a CFTC-registered Designated Contract Market that lists regulated event contracts on a central order book. This explainer covers how the order-book model works, how contracts resolve, the regulatory significance of Kalshi v. CFTC, and what operators and affiliates can learn from a compliant prediction-market model.
Jun 10, 2026
Top 10 Prediction Market Operators and Alternatives 2026
The prediction-market landscape now spans more than a dozen venues split across two structural models: regulated order-book exchanges and on-chain protocols. This roundup itemizes Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt, Manifold, Augur, Limitless, and new entrants like DraftKings and Robinhood, with model, regulation, and affiliate evaluation for each.
Jun 10, 2026
Event Contracts Explained: How CFTC Event Trading Works in 2026
An event contract is a binary derivative that pays $1 if a defined outcome occurs and $0 if it does not, so its price between 0 and 1 is the implied probability. This 2026 operator guide explains the CFTC derivative classification, DCM listing and self-certification, the venues offering event contracts, and how IB-style affiliate compensation attaches to fee volume.
Jun 10, 2026
Prediction Market Regulation 2026: CFTC vs State Gaming Law
Prediction market regulation in 2026 is a federal-versus-state standoff: the CFTC regulates event contracts as derivatives, while state gaming commissions have sent cease-and-desist letters arguing sports contracts are wagering. This operator guide maps the 2024 Kalshi v CFTC ruling, prohibited categories, the congressional-trading-ban debate, and what the patchwork means for licensing and affiliate compliance.
Jun 10, 2026
How to Launch a Sports Prediction Market: Operator Playbook 2026
Launching a sports prediction market in 2026 means choosing a regulatory path, building a central limit order book, wiring credible sports resolution sources, and bootstrapping liquidity before affiliates arrive. This operator playbook walks the 8 steps in order, maps the Kalshi versus DraftKings sports-contract battle, and shows where affiliate acquisition fits.
Jun 10, 2026